Introduction

In 2015, countries around the world collectively recognized the urgency of addressing the climate crisis by adopting the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Signed by 195 parties, its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”  Achieving these goals aims to enhance climate resilience and align financial flows with climate objectives.

Understanding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The Paris Agreement operates on a “five-year cycle” that encourages progressively ambitious climate action targets. As part of this cycle, countries submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat. These NDCs outline each country’s efforts to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Since the Agreement’s adoption in 2015, parties have been submitting new or updated NDCs that outline their enhanced climate action plans to support the Agreement’s long-term goals.

NDCs detail the targets, policies, and measures aimed at reducing national emissions and adapting to climate impacts such as floods and droughts. It may also include information on financial needs, technology, and capacity-building efforts to support ambitious climate actions. Each successive NDC is expected to increase in ambition, ensuring progress toward achieving the Paris Agreement’s overarching objectives. Monitoring these efforts globally is essential to track progress and measure success in meeting these climate goals.

With the climate actions being taken across the globe by various actors, it becomes inevitable to monitor the progress of these targets and understand the progress to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. India submitted its Intended NDC on 2nd October 2015 and submitted its updated NDC in August 2022, which communicates the following points:

1. Promote a sustainable lifestyle rooted in conservation and moderation, driving a mass movement for ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LIFE).
2. Follow a cleaner, climate-friendly development path compared to past economic models.
3. Reduce carbon emissions intensity by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030.
4. Achieve 50% of electric power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, supported by technology transfer and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
5. Create a carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through forest/tree cover by 2030.
6. Invest in climate-vulnerable sectors like agriculture, water, and disaster management to enhance adaptation.
7. Mobilize domestic and international funds to bridge the resource gap for mitigation and adaptation.
8. Build capacity and frameworks for rapid diffusion of climate technology and R&D in India.

These efforts will help the country achieve its long-term goal of reaching net zero by 2070.

According to the Global Emissions Report 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a new record of 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023, representing a 1.3 percent increase from 2022 levels. The top five emitter countries have adopted ambitious NDCs to curb emissions:

•  China aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by at least 65% from 2005 levels, raise the share of non-fossil energy to around 25% by 2030, expand forest stock by 6 billion m³, and exceed 1.2 billion kW of wind and solar capacity by 2030.
• The United States targets a 50–52% reduction in net GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2030. 
• India comes third in the absolute GHG emissions, which is one-fourth of China’s emissions in the list of top GHG-emitting countries. The country plans to cut emissions intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels, achieve 50% installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, create an additional 2.5–3 GtCO₂e carbon sink through forests and tree cover, and reach net-zero by 2070. 
• The European Union has committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990. 
• The Russian Federation has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by up to 70% by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. 

The total GHG emissions and per capita emissions for these countries are shown in the chart below.

China leads in total emissions due to its large population and industrial base, yet its per capita emissions remain moderate. In contrast, the United States produces far fewer total emissions than China but has extremely high per capita emissions, reflecting energy-intensive consumption patterns. India stands out with high total emissions driven by population, but very low per capita emissions, indicating minimal individual carbon footprints. The European Union shows moderate overall emissions with relatively higher per capita levels, while Russia has comparatively lower total emissions but the highest per capita emissions, highlighting a highly carbon-intensive economy. Overall, the chart underscores that population size drives total emissions, whereas lifestyle, energy mix, and industrial intensity drive per capita emissions.

Action Required

Though countries have made progress in submitting and updating their NDCs, reflecting efforts to curb emissions. However, analysis by the UNFCCC and other organizations reveals that many countries are still far from meeting their targets.

As per the recent Emissions Gap Report 2024, to stay on a cost-effective path for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, emissions need to fall by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels. For a 2°C limit, emissions must drop by 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035. Yet, with GHG emissions reaching a record high of 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2023, more substantial cuts are now required. Achieving the 1.5°C target would require reducing emissions by 7.5% annually until 2035. Current pledges fall significantly short, potentially leading to a best-case scenario of 2.6°C warming by the century’s end, necessitating costly carbon removal efforts to manage overshoot.

Despite the challenges, reaching a 1.5°C pathway remains technically possible. Key sectors like solar and wind energy could account for 27% of the required emission reductions by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Forest conservation could contribute another 20% in both years. Achieving these goals requires at least a sixfold increase in mitigation investments, supported by financial reforms and private-sector action. Full implementation of NDCs and updating the existing NDCs with ambitious targets are necessary to narrow the gap between current projections and these targets, especially as emission reduction scenarios indicate the need for enhanced financial and technological support​.

To assess the collective global progress on achieving the purpose of the Agreement, Global Stocktake, a comprehensive five-yearly assessment has been conducted first time in 2023 at COP 28. It urges countries to align their NDCs with a 1.5°C warming limit and net-zero transitions. It calls for sector-specific global actions, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, phasing out fossil fuels, and protecting ecosystems, with each country contributing through nationally determined efforts.

Conclusion

While countries have taken steps to update and strengthen their NDCs, the current level of ambition remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goal. There is an urgent need to accelerate action, particularly in scaling renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, protecting natural ecosystems, and mobilizing finance for mitigation and adaptation. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided is vital for saving lives, protecting economies, and conserving biodiversity. However, without timely and transformative efforts, it will soon become increasingly difficult to meet the 1.5°C target without overshooting, and even the 2°C goal will face growing challenges. Strengthening and fully implementing NDCs, supported by technology transfer and equitable climate finance, will be critical to narrowing the emissions gap. The window to act is narrowing, but coordinated and ambitious global efforts can still lead the world toward a more climate-resilient and sustainable future.